Fiscal multipliers in good times and bad times

This paper estimates the magnitudes of government spending and tax multipliers within a regime-switching framework for the U.S. economy during the period 1949:1–2006:4. Our results show that the magnitudes of spending multipliers are larger during periods of low economic activity, while the magnitudes of tax multipliers are larger during periods of high economic activity. We also show that the magnitudes of fiscal multipliers got smaller for episodes of low growth, while they got larger for episodes of high growth in the post 1980 period. Analyzing the effects of government spending and taxes on consumption and investment spending indicates that the magnitude of the effects of fiscal shocks on consumption and investment is very small.     

Race to burn the last ton of carbon and the risk of stranded assets

A cap on global warming implies a tighter carbon budget which can be enforced with a credible second-best renewable energy subsidy designed to lock up fossil fuel and curb cumulative emissions. Such a subsidy brings forward the end of the fossil fuel era but accelerates fossil fuel extraction and global warming in the short run. A weaker fossil fuel oligopoly implies that anticipation of a given global carbon budget induces fossil producers to deplete reserves more voraciously and accelerate global warming. This race to burn the last ton of carbon is more intensive for the feedback than open-loop Nash equilibrium, so that the Green Paradox effect of a renewable energy subsidy is stronger. There is an intermediate phase of limit pricing to keep renewable energy producers at bay, which becomes much more relevant when a cap on global warming is enforced. A stronger fossil fuel oligopoly lengthens the period of limit pricing and typically brings forward the carbon-free era. Finally, the mere risk of a cap on global warming being enforced at some unknown, future date makes fossil fuel extraction more voracious and accelerates global warming.     

Regime switches and commonalities of the cryptocurrencies asset class

In this paper we test for regime changes and possible regime commonalities in the price dynamics of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Monero, as representatives of the cryptocurrencies asset class. Several parametric models are considered for the joint dynamics of the basket price where parameters are modulated through a Hidden Markov Chain with finite state space. Best specifications within Gaussian and Autoregressive models for price differences are selected by means of the AIC and BIC information criteria and through an out-of-sample forecasting performance. The empirical results, within the period January 2016 to October 2019, suggest that three or four states may be relevant to describe the dynamics of each individual cryptocurrency, depending on the selection criteria, while the entire basket displays at most three common states. Finally, we show how the identification of appropriate models may be exploited in order to build profitable investment strategies on the considered cryptocurrencies.     

我国产出缺口与通胀菲利普斯曲线形态的研究——基于LSTVAR模型的实证分析

菲利普斯曲线通过把通货膨胀与经济增长结合起来而成为了宏观经济研究的基石。考虑到两者之间的关系可能存在非线性以及经济系统的反馈性,本文基于季度数据首次建立了我国1995-2009年间两者之间的平滑转换向量自回归模型,结果表明两者之间具有显著的非线性,并且非线性转换由逻辑函数刻画,转换变量为滞后二期通胀率。广义脉冲响应分析表明样本期内我国经济系统的冲击主要来自总需求方面,且现阶段的菲利普斯曲线是凹的。     

人民币名义汇率与中国通胀的区制转换特征研究

我们通过扩展巴拉萨—萨缪尔森假说,对名义汇率升值和通胀的相互替代作用进行了理论解释,并使用马尔科夫区制转换模型研究了1983年1月至2010年11月间人民币/美元汇率和中国通胀率的时间序列行为。经验研究显示,在缩小中美之间价格差距的过程中,结构性通胀与名义汇率升值有着相同的作用。人民币外在升值压力与国内通胀并存的问题,对于宏观经济平衡和货币政策制定者来说,既意味着机遇,也意味着挑战。我们认为,通胀与名义汇率升值的合适政策搭配会降低人民币升值预期,并逐步缓解人民币升值压力。     

后配额时代我国应对欧盟对华纺织品特保措施之法律对策

后配额时代,欧美实施的对华纺织品特保措施对中国纺织业的影响是巨大的.因而必须从国际法的视角对欧盟对华纺织品特保措施立法进行系统分析,找出其对我国纺织品出口贸易的危害,并在此基础上,从操作、诉讼、规则和立法等四个层面提出我国应对欧盟对华纺织品特保措施的法律策略.     

Bayesian Risk Management for Equity-Linked Insurance

This paper describes how to apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to a regime switching model of the stock price process to generate a sample from the joint posterior distribution of the parameters of the model. The MCMC output can be used to generate a sample from the predictive distribution of losses from equity linked contracts, assuming first an actuarial approach to risk management and secondly a financial economics approach. The predictive distribution is used to show the effect of parameter uncertainty on risk management calculations. We also explore model uncertainty by assuming a GARCH model in place of the regime switching model. The results indicate that the financial economics approach to risk management is substantially more robust to parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty than the actuarial approach.     

海南农产品出口基地建设初探

农业是海南经济发展的支柱产业之一。海南农产品出口比重低,竞争力弱,与海南作为我国最重要的热带农产品生产基地极不相称,建立农产品出口基地已势在必行。本文系统地分析了海南农产品出口基地建设的必要性与可行性,提出了农产品出口基地建设的布局设想,并指出了相应的保障措施。     

琶洲城中村改造模式的征地创新思路

本文从广州市琶洲村改造的具体实践出发,深入剖析琶洲城中村改造模式的征地创新思路,认为该模式为我国征地改革提供了实践的论证,但该模式亟需解决政府监督权立法保障、用地单位用地程序立法保障、征地拆迁补偿标准争端解决机制立法保障等的法律问题。     

新兴市场的汇率制度选择、金融约束与经济增长

本文通过构造一个基于金融环境约束的开放经济体跨期模型,对不同汇率制度面临不同名义冲击下的经济绩效进行了比较,结果发现由于浮动汇率对于宏观经济的冲击吸收能力依赖于该国金融环境的发展条件,因此新兴市场的汇率制度退出和转轨决策应当着眼于克服金融约束的关键性门槛.本文的跨国经验分析也进一步证实了模型的结论.